Global Population
(based on excerpts from the book)
The global problem
It took some 100,000 years for humanity, upon evolving into modern homo
sapiens sapiens, to reach 1 billion in number. It reached this figure
around 1804 AD. Thereafter, the global population has grown almost
exponentially, with succeeding increments of 1 billion respectively taking
123 years, 33 years, 14 years, 13 years and 11 years.
The average annual global population growth was 87 million from 1985
to 1990, declining to 81 million from 1990 to 1995. The period 1985
to 1990 appears to have been the peak period of global population growth.
The annual rate of growth then was 1.72% from 1975 to 1990, reducing to
1.48% from 1990 to 1995. The annual increase in the global population will
remain at around these levels for the next two decades – about a quarter
of a million each day, for the next twenty years.
This unprecedented increase is due to the ‘demographic transition’,
defined as the “historical shift of birth and death rates from high to
low levels in a population.” The decline of mortality usually precedes
the decline in fertility, thus resulting in rapid population growth during
the transition period.
The magnitude of the problem confronting humanity over the next century
is displayed in the global population projections compiled by the United
Nations. The current medium growth projection has the world population
at 8.4 billion in 2025, 9.4 billion in 2050, and 10.4 billion in 2100.
It is projected to level off at just under 11 billion in 2200.
The global objective and strategy
The global objective, as proclaimed at the 1994 UN International Conference
on Population and Development, is the improvement in the quality of life
of present and future generations through the stabilization of the world
population with sustainable development and economic growth:
Recognizing that the ultimate goal is the improvement in quality of
life of present and future generations, the objective is to facilitate
the demographic transition as soon as possible in countries where there
is an imbalance between demographic rates and social, economic and environmental
goals, while fully respecting human rights. This process will contribute
to the stabilization of world population, and, together with changes in
unsustainable patterns of production and consumption, to sustainable development
and economic growth.
By ‘stabilization’ is meant a level of recurring population growth below
the medium-term projection of the UN population projections:
During the remaining six years of this critical decade, the world’s
nations by their actions or inactions will choose from among a range of
alternative demographic futures. ... Implementation of the
goals and objectives contained in the present 20-year Programme of Action
... would result in world population growth during this period and beyond
at levels below the United Nations medium projection.
Thus the objective is to have a global population at or below 9.8 billion
in 2050 (the medium projection for that year submitted to the 1994 Cairo
Conference) and 11.2 billion in 2100.
The strategy for the earliest possible completion of the demographic
transition is essentially the Cairo Programme of Action. The Programme
makes it clear:
World population grew at the rate of 1.7% per annum during the period
1985-90, but is expected to decrease during the following decades and reach
1.0% per annum by the period 2020-2025. Nevertheless, the attainment
of population stabilisation during the twenty-first century will require
the implementation of all the policies and recommendations in the present
Programme of Action.
The Programme of Action will require the establishment of common ground,
with full respect for the religious and ethical values and cultural backgrounds.
The impact of this Conference will be measured by the strength of the specific
commitments made here and the consequent actions to fulfil them among all
the world’s countries and peoples, based on a sense of shared but differentiated
responsibility for each other and for our planetary home.
The Global Population Programme is an inter-related series of policies
for reducing the rate of population growth, primarily through five measures:
family planning including contraceptive techniques; improved reproductive
health services; the suppression of sexually-transmitted diseases; improved
education especially for the girl child; and heightened male responsibility.
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